A Deep Dive Into the Numbers

Posted on by Tim

My nephew, who turns 16 this year, is a math wiz, and loves statistical analysis, he has also taken a strong interest in modern politics.

Last week he took on the task to analyze polls and historical data to predict how the electoral college plays out. This is his work…

DC, Vermont, Massachusetts, Hawaii, Maryland, California, New York, Rhode Island, Delaware, Washington, Connecticut, Maine’s 1st District, New Jersey, Oregon, and Illinois are very safe for Biden, with current polling averages by FiveThirtyEight showing him up 15 points or more. These states combined are 183 electoral votes.

On the other hand, Nebraska’s 3rd District, Wyoming, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Idaho, North Dakota, Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Dakota are very safe for Trump, with current polling averages by FiveThirtyEight showing him up 15 points or more. These states combined are 63 electoral votes.

Likely Biden States:

New Mexico and Colorado haven’t always been blue, but these last 3 presidential elections they certainly have. With some positive polling for Biden in these states this election, it seems very unlikely that these states go to Trump.

Virginia is a red state, right? Wrong. Much like New Mexico and Colorado, Virginia has gone blue the last 3 presidential elections. While in 2016 Clinton’s vice president pick Kaine was from Virginia, it is hard to truly know how much of an effect that had. Whatever the case was, Virginia is polling strong for Biden this year.

Maine has voted Democrat for the last 7 presidential elections, and doesn’t seem to be stopping this year, with Biden having an apprixmately 14 point lead over Trump in the polling averages.

New Hampshire seems relatively solidly in Biden’s favor, even with it having been considered a swing state in the past, and being relatively close last year.

Minnesota went to Clinton last election, and this election it doesn’t seem likely that that story will be different. Biden leads Trump by over 9 points in this state, and with Clinton having won this state in 2016, it seems very likely Biden will keep this state.

Michigan and Wisconsin are part of a group of 3 key states that will likely help decide the election, along with Pennsylvania. In this prediction, they will be called the rust belt. Michigan and Wisconsin certainly are the most blue of the rust belt, and were extremely close states (especially Michigan) in the 2016 election, even though they had gone to Trump in the end. This year, Biden has an 8 point lead in these states, which makes it seem likely Biden will win these states.

Likely Trump States:

Nebraska has voted red for many years, and is unlikely to change this year. This state would likely be safe if it weren’t for FiveThirtyEight showing Trump up by only a bit under 10 points.

Tennessee is likely to go to Trump, as Trump has a solid lead of just under 13 points.

In Utah, Trump is ahead by under 11 points. As with many of the other red states in the likely column, this state has been solidly Republican for many elections.

Nebraska’s 1st district does not have a lot of info around it. However, there is one poll listed on FiveThiryEight showing Trump up 2 points. However, last election Republicans won Nebraska’s 1st district by over 20 points. Therefore, this district will be considered likely in this prediction.

Kansas is also a reliable vote for Republicans, having voted for them in the last 13 presidential elections. While it doesn’t seem likely it will flip, it is up only just over 10 points for the Republicans.

Indiana mostly votes red, although they did vote blue in 2008. Granted, Republicans did win Indiana by a bit under 20 points in 2016. Either way, Trump is up nearly 10 points over Biden in Indiana.

Even with the Republicans winning Missouri by almost 20 points in 2016, the polls show it surprisingly close in comparison at an approximately 7 point lead for Trump.

Montana is a surprising case, having the Republicans win by over 20 points in 2016, to leading in the polls by just under 5 points, and it’s been narrowing up recently.

South Carolina, unlike their neighbor to the north (more on that later), is still likely to go red this election, with Trump up around 7.5 points.

Alaska is an interesting case, as this is one of Trump’s best times in the polls over the last few months, with a bit under an 8 point lead. Yes, a nearly 8 point lead is good compared to the rest of Trump’s polls this year in Alaska, the state that went to Trump by over 25 points in 2016.

It is amazing to see many of these likely Republican states not safe. It really goes to show Biden’s power this election. States like Alaska or Nebraska shouldn’t be this close, but they are.

Lean Biden States:

Pennsylvania is the other state in the rust belt. This state is considered by many to be the key state, and is shown to be the most likely tipping point state by FiveThirtyEight. This is good news for Biden, as he is ahead nearly 5 points in Pennsylvania polling.

Nevada was a swing state that went to Clinton last election, and this election seems fairly favorable for Biden, with nearly a 5 point lead over Trump.

Arizona has actually become more blue over the years, with only an approximately 3.5 point victory for Trump in 2016, whereas it was much larger for Republicans in 2012 and 2008. This year, Biden is actually polling ahead of Trump in Arizona, with a lead of nearly 3 points. This state seems like it will go to the Democrats, but it could go either way.

Ah yes, Florida, home of close elections. Trump won it by just over a point in 2016, Obama won it by just under a point in 2012, Obama won it by just under 3 points in 2008, Bush won it by 5 points in 2004, and let’s not discuss the 2000 election. In general, Florida tends to be a close state, and it seems like it will continue that tradition this year. Currently, Biden is leading by around 2 points in the polls in Florida. With Florida’s history, it wouldn’t be surprising to see it go either way, but for the moment it seems to be going to Biden.

North Carolina is another one of those states that have classically tended to be Republican, but now seem to be Democrat. Admittedly, North Carolina did go to Obama in 2008, although barely. This year, Biden has almost a 2 point advantage over Trump according to polling. This still isn’t enough to overcome the polling error from 2016, but this year isn’t 2016.

Georgia has swung back and forth in the polls this election, but currently Biden, surprisingly enough, is ahead over a point in polling data. In the last few elections, Democrats have lost by about 5 or more points in Georgia, so it is impressive to see Biden ahead this year.

Biden seems ahead in Maine’s 2nd district (he has a 3.2 point lead), but due to less polls it’s harder to say for certain. What can be said for certain is that in 2016 Trump won by nearly 10 points, while in 2012 Obama won by over 8 points.

In Nebraska’s 2nd District, it also seems like Biden will win, with a 4.5 point lead.

Lean Trump States:

While Texas has been going more and more blue over the last few years, it seems unlikely that this election is the year that it fully goes blue. Trump has an admittedly low 1 point lead over Biden, but it still seems likely it will go Republican. Given current trends, maybe next presidential election will be the one where we see Texas go blue.

Tilt Trump States:

Ohio’s prediction is honestly tragic. For the last 14 presidential elections, Ohio has voted for the winner of the election. However, this year, it seems to have shifted too far to the right. Currently Trump is ahead 0.8 points in the polls in Ohio, although in general it seems like Biden will win the election, which would break Ohio’s streak. We will see though, as it is a close race in Ohio.

Iowa has been the weirdest state to watch during the making of this prediction. It has been fluctuating back and forth between the 2 candidates for the last month. It has settled to be Biden territory for most of October, but now it has jumped up into being a Trump state. This state is really hard to call either direction, but as Election Day is just around the corner, and Trump has a lead of 1.6 points, it seems it will go to Trump. That being said, early voting was occurring while Biden was in the lead in the polls, so it could swing to Biden. It seems likely this will be the closest state of them all.

And that has been every state! Based on this prediction, here are the predicted results: Biden 351, Trump 187. However, as this prediction does list states based on their likelihood to go to each candidate, included below is what would happen if certain levels of change from the prediction would happen.

To clarify, the wave scenarios outlined below are based on what would happen if various levels of change in the prediction happened, with a blue wave meaning Democrats win tilt Republican states, a blue tsunami meaning Democrats win lean Republican states, and a blue blow-out meaning Democrats win likely Republican states. This also goes for the red waves, but in the favor of the Republicans. This is why the red wave has no change, as there are no tilt Democrat states in this prediction.

Blue Blow-Out: Biden 475, Trump 63


Blue Tsunami: Biden 413, Trump 125


Blue Wave: Biden 375, Trump 163


Standard Prediction: Biden 351, Trump 187


Red Wave: Biden 351, Trump 187


Red Tsunami: Biden 252, Trump 286


Red Blow-Out: Biden 183, Trump 355

Some of the sources:


FiveThirtyEight Forecast: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/


FiveThirtyEight Polls: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/


FiveThirtyEight 2016 Data: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/


Historical Results:

https://www.270towin.com/historical-presidential-elections/

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election#

(and various other Wikipedia articles)

If you wish to see a map form of this prediction, go to this link:

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=4frs

Looking To The Future Through A Hindsight Filter

Posted on by Tim

We are now in our 8th month of dealing with COVID-19 in the US and the 11th month since China first began publicly acknowledging their outbreak and taking large scale preventative measures.

While we don’t, yet, have a cure or reliable vaccine ready for mass distribution, we do have a pretty clear understanding of the science outlining how we can minimize its infectious spread.

This along with the material leaked by various congressional and White House staff members (current and former), the rhetoric and sources being disproved by those leaks, and the physical confessions of criminal intent Woodward suppressed for half a year offer us the wisdom of hindsight.

What is clear to anyone looking at the whole picture is that Republican politicians bet big on the hope that refusing to allow the proper steps to be taken in time would kill off a massive segment of the already elderly, infirm, impoverished, and marginalized minority community members in a natural biological warfare eugenics scheme before it could reach their cloistered and fortified ranks.

They weaponized the willful ignorance of their racist supporters to hasten the process and used #StochasticTerrorism to whip them into a frenzy.

They did this while accelerating their long term efforts to strip access to health care away from the millions they want to eliminate.

They even managed to fabricate an economic crisis that escalated the risk to those lower income workers in societally essential, but underappreciated and underpaid jobs. Making them choose a death by pandemic illness or homelessness due to loss of income.  And they created an imbalanced stimulus package to benefit the employers and companies that were abandoning their workers by the 10s of thousands.

All to eliminate a huge segment of their opposition voting base and protect their dying grasp on the levers of power in our nation.

Horrifically, they were largely successful. A quarter of a million Americans died, millions more fell ill – many permanently, and tens of millions dropped further into poverty and face homelessness in their near future.

But they weren’t successful enough. The people were galvanized instead of broken. We began using social media to organize large scale resistance and defeat the propaganda spin. They prepared en masse to reclaim democracy.

This increased resistance threatening the decades of work the Republicans spent gerrymandering and redlining districts and suppressing votes by every legal and illegal means possible, forced them to take larger, faster, more obvious steps toward establishing a fascist kleptocracy under the influence and control of an adversarial foreign power.

If they had managed to kill more, and crush the resistive spirit of enough of the rest of us, faster, they would have immediately adopted the necessary protocols to stop the spread of the disease to save themselves.

But, we persevered for too long, and the illness reached them before they could secure victory over their own citizenry and constituents. Now it is too late to admit their intent openly without their own violent supporters being forced to realize how they were being used and being disregarded and discarded along with everyone else in the process.

So they have to maintain the lie at any and all costs, even as they begin to suffer the same detrimental health effects and possible deaths within their own gilded halls sequestered from the masses.

And that is where we are now.

The only way we begin to recover is to sweep everyone who has supported, protected, enabled, and emboldened this presidential administration from every level of our federal, state, and local governments.

Then we can work on passing some new laws, abolishing some old ones, and begin correcting the course of our #Culturalinertia. It will be generations before we are done, especially if Trump and McConnell secure a 6-3 imbalance on the Supreme Court.

We will never complete the journey unless we decide right now to take every possible step necessary to begin it.

The first step is making sure your ballot is properly submitted between now and November 3rd.

Voting Is Imperative, And Not Enough.

Posted on by Tim

What I am having the hardest time grasping isn’t why the Republican leadership is supporting Kavanaugh.

That is, sadly, entirely within character for the party leadership and not at all surprising. They need this man on the bench, more than any other, because they know he’ll protect them at the highest levels of our court system from repercussions for their actions in support of this administration even if the balance of power in Congress shifts.

It isn’t why the die hard Trump supporters are either, they’ve already demonstrated that they’re willing to screw over themselves with their votes and campaign donations as long as they think they people they hate are getting screwed over more.

What I don’t get are all the parents out there of teen and pre-teen children. The ones with those kids just starting to become aware of political discourse as their school social studies classes turn to current events. The ones with kids in the early years of high school that will be voting in the fall of 2020.

I don’t get how they can watch these discussions of what it ultimately means to be male or female in our society with their kids, and remain idle, apathetic, or worse supportive of those that strive to keep it this way.

Discussions of why young men shouldn’t be held accountable for their actions, especially if those actions are a result of reckless underage drinking.

Discussions of why young women need to have a stricter dress code than men so they don’t tempt boys to treat them poorly. Why young women have to be more careful at parties and never leave their drinks unattended in case someone might drug them. Why women should always travel together, even to the bathroom in public spaces, so they have strength in numbers. Why young women shouldn’t make accusations of assault against their attackers because we don’t want to ruin a young man’s promising future. Why women shouldn’t make accusations against their assaulter because we don’t want to ruin a man’s career or reputation. Why women should expect if they come forward about an attack to have every aspect of their life — attire, attitude, past history, other sexual experiences, sexual identity, sexuality, friendships, social circles, drinking habits, recreational drug use/experimentation, and more — ripped to shreds in order to find an excuse for the way her assaulter treated her so we don’t have to actually blame him. Why women shouldn’t be allowed the choice to have an abortion even if their pregnancy is the result of a non-consensual sexual assault. Why women who have kids before they’re ready, even as a result of such attacks shouldn’t be provided aid and assistance as single parents.

Discussions of why no man should have to bear the hardship of being accused unless the woman can provide physical DNA evidence, at least 2 eye-witnesses, and preferably a video recording of the incident (which the court and jury will be shown to further traumatize her) and even with all of that, why she’ll still have to endure all of the crap mentioned above being done to her just to give her accuser a couple months jail time and possible registration on the sexual offenders list if he can’t plead his way out of it.

How do they look at their daughters, and say “This is what you’ll have to endure the rest of your life, and I’m not going to try to do anything to fix it.”

How do they look at their sons and say “No matter what we’ve tried to teach you about manners, etiquette, moral and ethical conduct, this is what society will accept and expect of you, and I’m not going to do anything to try to fix it.”

Yes, voting is essential.  It is a moral imperative.  Please vote.

But voting is not enough.

We must change our culture. We must break free of the #Culturalinertia that has us mired in the acceptance of this. In the use of the terminology and mindset that allows it to continue even as we talk about how unfair and not right it is.

These people that condone this and profit off it and remain in power through it need to be removed. Those people that stand idly by and allow it to continue need to be corrected and/or removed.

We need to get off our asses and force the change that needs to happen. Because it isn’t going to happen without us.

Ask yourself “Who has to be victimized before I have had enough?”

Then ask yourself, “Am I really willing to wait for that to happen?”

Because honestly, statistically the odds are, no matter who you named in that first question, it’s likely begun to happen already.

If not us, then who?

If not now, then when?

Does Your Chosen Party Leadership Represent You?

Posted on by Tim

For just a minute, we’ll throw out concepts like “left, right, and center,” and “liberal or conservative.” For just a minute, lets forget the long history of what people think it means to be Republican or Democrat and evaluate what the leadership of the modern political parties really appear to stand for at this point.

 

Understand that for the purposes of this discussion I am speaking of the party leadership’s actions, voting records, introduced legislation, and not the simple rhetoric of their public platforms.

 

Modern Progressives are fighting for equality of opportunity, equality of law enforcement and application of penalties by the Judicial system, affordable access to quality health care and quality education by all. And they recognize that taxation, primarily on businesses and the wealthiest are required to pay for it. They just can’t seem to break free of their dependence upon or association with the Democratic party in order to create their own viable party and campaigns.

 

Modern Republicans claim they are fighting for America, but they are only fighting for a selective group of Americans and then only to control that group’s behavior along with everyone else through a theocracy enforcing Christian Fundamentalism and more recently open support of legislating White Nationalist oppression and persecution of people of color. But the reality is that they are paying lip service to those Christians as well as they destroy all federal government services and organizations and eliminate the revenue to provide them by eliminating taxes on the rich and increasing taxes and expenses on the poor.

 

Modern Democrats straddle the middle paying lip-service to the Progressives while not doing anything to actually further the progressive agenda, and claiming to fight the Republicans on social issues that government has little control over but constantly giving in — one little piece at a time — to the Republican’s demands to strip the rights of people in favor of the rights of corporations, and the rights of the masses in favor of the rights of the wealthy.

 

Modern Libertarians want a nation of “every man for himself,” where the rich have power and access to fundamental necessities regardless of price and everyone else deserves what ever befalls them.

 

The modern Green Party wants to save the planet’s ecology and also pays lip-service to the Progressives, but they have no coherent social reform plans and a demonstrated lack of foreign policy knowledge or initiatives at the leadership level.

 

The newly formed UCOBA — United Citizens Of Black America — working to end racial injustice and create social reform is another Progressive group working towards solving similar issues of systemic oppression and societally enforced inequality from a focus on issues directly affecting People of Color.   And the correct belief that any issue that affects any American is a problem for all Americans to solve.   We can not claim to be a free nation until none of us are oppressed.

 

There are other parties such as the Constitution Party that have not gained enough national recognition or viability to earn a place in the discussion yet.

Meanwhile, Independent voters have no national representation because they don’t have an actual viable Independent party with consolidated resources for campaign funding or strategy. So they have to decide which of the above choices most closely aligns with them on the issues of import every time they step up to the ballot box.

 

Note: I have not included the Tea Party as a separate party or even an identifiable faction of the Republican party because as of 2016, the Tea Party gained enough control in the Republican party that as far as leadership is concerned they are one and the same now.

2020 Reelection Campaign Already?!

Posted on by Tim

In July of 2016, the Urban Dictionary added the definition of “Trumpence” as:

trumpence

 

Roughly one month after making a mockery of the Oath of Office — by violating the constitutional emoluments clause while saying the words — Donald J. Trump filed the official papers to open his 2020 reelection campaign.

Today, Alexia Fernández Campbell, writing for Vox, informs us that the Republican president’s first reelection fundraiser is a $35,000-a-ticket soiree at his own hotel.”

You might ask “Why?”

Why would a president less than a year into office already be campaigning for reelection instead of focusing on implementing the policy he pushed during his first campaign?

There are many answers to that question, and all of them are correct.   All of them should prove to you that you should not support this reelection campaign.

First, as the Vox article points out:

 

In hosting the dinner at his hotel, Trump manages to raise money not only for his 2020 campaign but for himself too. After all, any business the hotel does is personal profit for the president, who still owns the Trump Organization. It’s unclear if the hotel will make money from the dinner, but even if the hotel gave the food for free, any money attendees spend on hotel rooms, at the bar, or at shops in the hotel goes straight to the Trump Organization.

 

Hosting the event as his own hotel is a revenue windfall for the hotel even if it doesn’t charge the President’s campaign itself a dime; but they’ll charge in order to funnel the money from the campaign back into the family business coffers.

But there are other several other, and probably far more important reasons that Trump is doing this, and they need to be exposed as well.   Which brings us to the second reason.

By establishing the campaign fund, and officially holding rallies, large donors who want Presidential favor can funnel money into his campaign efforts through various SuperPac funds over the entire first four years of the Presidential term in return for pay-to-play favoritism.

But, wait, don’t order yet, there’s more!

The big trick is declaring all of his public appearances as official campaign rallies or fund raisers.   By doing so, he can block access to whomever he wants without violating constitutional rights of anyone that doesn’t agree with him.   He can have protestors, hecklers, and anyone who speaks out forcibly removed as an “unapproved guest” instead of being forced to hear what those citizens have to say in opposition to him.

It allows him to continue the “Lock her up!” and “Repeal and Replace!” chants while deflecting from his own inability to do either and from the investigations into his own unethical and possibly criminal infractions.

Next, there is the fact that political campaign speech is protected in a way that the official words of a civil servant are not, so it is much harder — legally — to hold him accountable for the “dog whistle” and overt racist rhetoric he uses at these campaigns to rile up the”Alt-Right,” Neo-Nazi, and  White Nationalist voter base that refuses to abandon him as long as he keeps speaking their language.

Let us not forget the fact that the continuation of the campaign allows him to keep the merchandise sales flowing as well.

Finally, there is the fact that he can set up reservations and accommodations in his own properties for foreign government agents to accidentally — on purpose — bump into him for a brief unscheduled meeting that is off the White House records, while claiming those agents were just there at the same time as his rally/fund-raiser purely by coincidence.

Please, I implore you, do not allow yourself to be one of the willfully ignorant targets of this trumpence campaign that gets whipped into enough uninformed outrage to vote for this administration a second time.

Don’t Be Fooled By Appearances

Posted on by Tim

By most indications, today it would appear that Donald Trump has decided to challenge the Republican party leadership that has condemned him for his sexual assault confessions in the Billy Bush video.

It seems he is now running his campaign as a hostile takeover instead of the Republican front runner.

That appearance is patently false though until that same Republican leadership actually pulls their support, funding, and endorsements of him as their candidate.

Until they have taken those steps to cut him off, he is still their candidate of choice despite any of their pandering rhetoric to save their own campaigns and political clout in the process.

Is Trump The Republican Candidate Or Merely A Necessary Step in the Ascension Of Their Real Choice?

Posted on by Tim

Consider the possibility for just a few moments that installing Donald Trump as President of the United States is not the specific endgame the Republican National Committee is striving to obtain.

 

The Republican leadership has committed themselves to the long game before, they’ve been focusing on the State and local governments for decades in order to rewrite legislation to undermine civil and Constitutional rights for protected classes of citizens and manipulate voting districts.

 

They’ve committed themselves to complete and total obstruction of a sitting president for two full terms, even to the determent of getting some of the concessions they have been fighting for all along by working with him as well as to the determent of the health, safety, and welfare of their own constituents.

 

What if they’ve decided that the best way to get the moderate Republicans to help them put a hard right evangelical conservative extremist in the office of Presidency is to reluctantly put Trump in the front runner position to appeal to use his fame and fortune to appeal to a populist base of voters easy to whip into a frenzy through manipulation of their willful ignorance to create uninformed outrage that will drive them in great numbers to the ballot boxes.   They do all this while claiming not to like his policies but supporting him because their constituents (whom they’ve already proven they about not at all) support him.

 

In exchange for party support during the election they put the candidate they ultimately want in the position in place as the campaign’s choice for Vice President on the ticket.   Then throughout the election cycle, that VP choice campaigns as if his running mate doesn’t exist and as if he doesn’t support the policies and positions of his own running mate himself.   Party leaders begin to slowly and reluctantly endorse their candidate while simultaneously distancing themselves from his rhetoric and condemning his behavior.

 

Finally, shortly after Trump is elected president, the RNC leadership that put him there unveils their plan to lead the way to impeach their own Presidential candidate, putting on a show of putting the safety and wellbeing of our nation’s above their own party line politics.

 

This would bring back the moderates that were driven away by Trump himself, secure their power position in the oval office with one of the most extreme right candidates to land on the ballot in decades,

 

In such a scenario, the end result wouldn’t be a President Trump in 2017, but a President Pence by 2018.

 

And in the long run, Pence would be far worse, because he is not a vacuous shell, but rather a conniving politician with a frightening social and economic agenda.